| 杨 阳1 ，李中生 2 ，王艺1 ，万里勇 1 ，刘慧娟 1 ，张昕宇 3.利用性能参数回归分析的航空发动机MTBF预计[J].航空发动机,2023,49(1):34-40 |
| 利用性能参数回归分析的航空发动机MTBF预计 |
| Prediction of Aeroengine MTBF Using Regression Analysis of Performance Parameters |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 平均故障间隔时间 可靠性预计 回归分析 性能参数 航空发动机 |
| 英文关键词:Mean Time Between Failures （MTBF） reliability prediction regression analysis performance parameters aeroengine |
| 基金项目:面向飞机作战能力的发动机综合论证系统研究（6141B090101）资助 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 航空发动机可靠性指标平均故障间隔时间（MTBF）的预计方法有多种，在发动机立项阶段数据缺乏的情况下建议优先
选用统计回归法进行发动机可靠性指标MTBF的预测。为了在发动机预先研究阶段能够预计发动机的可靠性水平，利用系数修
正的方法对国外的预计回归公式进行修正，可以得到1个新的回归预计公式，但该公式存在飞机参数不明确时无法进行应用的缺
点，因此，基于仅利用发动机性能参数进行多元线性统计回归分析得到了新的预计公式，结果表明：新的预计发动机MTBF的回归
公式可以在配装飞机不明确的情况下，仅利用发动机本身的性能参数即可大概估算出发动机的MTBF水平，预计效率高，可以为
发动机立项论证时可靠性指标MTBF提供参考依据。综合来看，该方法可以实现立项阶段根据飞机参数、发动机性能参数进行发
动机可靠性指标MTBF的快速预计，有一定的参考价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| There are many methods to predict the Mean Time Between Failures（MTBF）of the aeroengine reliability index . In the case
of lacking data during the engine project demonstration，it is recommended to give priority to the statistical regression method to predict the
overall reliability index MTBF. To predict the reliability level of the engine in the preresearch stage，by introducing correction coefficients
to modify the regression prediction formula from abroad，a new regression prediction formula could be obtained. However，this formula has
a disadvantage that it cannot be applied if the aircraft parameters are not clear. Therefore，a new prediction formula was obtained based on
the multiple linear statistical regression analysis using only the engine performance parameters. The results show that the new regression
formula can preliminarily estimate the whole engine MTBF level by using engine performance parameters only without the need of knowing
aircraft parameters，and the prediction efficiency is high，which can provide a reference for the reliability index MTBF of the engine to sup?
port the demonstration for project approval. In summary，this method can realize the rapid prediction of the reliability index MTBF of the
whole engine according to the aircraft parameters and engine performance parameters during the demonstration for project approval. |
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